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WoodWeek – 7 July 2010

Greetings from New Zealand where the weatherman has added wind to the winter menu to add annoyance to the 'just-rain' option on offer so far. However, as you will read in this week's market report - it seems the rain so far this winter has not curbed enough woodflow to stop the export supply chain to China over-filling.

On the FICA front - the Network for Women in Forestry has completed a busy 3-month schedule of regional meetings designed to create interest and confirm the need and mission for this group. By all accounts there is plenty of interest and a keen set of agenda items to continue networking and meeting about. Watch this space for more information in coming months.

The next FICA trifecta of regional evening meeting/field trip/Logging Costing Workshop takes place in Whangarei in just 3 weeks time. As with previous regional events we are already getting interest from contractors outside the region to register to attend this meeting. Makes sense to me - who wouldn't want to head to the 'winterless north' at this time of year to network with other contractors. So make a note -Thursday 22 July for the field trip and evening meeting (dinner is free for FICA members and sponsors) at the Kingsgate Hotel. Then Friday morning (23 July) for the FICA Logging Costing Workshop led by Mark Blackburne of Blackburne Group. Please register your interest for the field trip and meeting by ringing Jeannette on 07 921 1380. The costing workshop registration form can be found in the FICA article in today's issue.

Meanwhile, in Tasmania, the state government treasurer has said that the proposed Gunns pulp mill project is in better shape than it has been for a long while. He added that the state has ample forest resources to supply the planned AU$2.2 billion mill. Its been a roller coaster ride for everyone in the Tasmanian forest industry over the last year - so here's hoping the treasurer's faith is well-placed.

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This week we have for you:

Contractors' Key Indicators

Check out the latest changes in diesel prices, interest rates and exchange rates on both sides of the Tasman in this week's Key Indicators.

NZ CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
7th July 2010
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
90-day bill rate = 3.14%Average (excl GST / all regions) = $1.07
Exchange RatesChange (month) = +2%
NZD/USD = 0.6873Change(quarter) = +3%
NZD/Yen = 60.22Change (year) = +9%
Labour Cost Index - Ag/Forestry/FishingConsumer Price Index
Mar 10 quarter = 1006Mar 10 quarter = 1097
Change (quarter) =+0.2%Change (quarter) = +0.4%
N/AChange (year) = N/A*NCChange (year) = +2.0%

*Note:The LCI has been re-expressed on a June 2009 quarter base (=1000).

AUSTRALIAN CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
7th July 2010
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
90-day bill rate = 4.87%NCVIC (excl GST) = $1.13
Exchange RatesNSW (excl GST) = $1.10

AUD/USD =0.8419NCTAS (excl GST) = $1.20
AUD/Yen = 73.89SA (excl GST) = $1.13
Wage Price Index - All IndustriesConsumer Price Index
Mar 10 quarter = 103.6Mar 10 quarter = 171.0
Change (quarter) = +0.9%Change (quarter) =+0.9%
Change (year) = +2.5%Change (year) =+2.9%


TPT Forests Export Market Report

TPT Forests

Let's start with a quote from last month’s export report: "So once again, the crystal ball is a little murky as the fog falls heading into winter and there’s a dollar each way on the good and bad out there. However on balance we remain somewhat cautious while inventories remain high at these levels and supply competition across all the supply countries is back and increasing. It won’t take too much more of an oversupply situation to turn the balance. Accordingly this bad bout of weather experienced in NZ and the PNW is actually doing us all a favor in slowing down supply, to allow the market to digest what has been a heavy supply few months. Watch this space."

It appears it hasn't rained nearly hard enough or long enough in NZ, Pacific North West USA, or Canada over the last month, as supply has continued to run well throughout the period, and certainly more than the consumption in the Asian log markets has affectively been able to digest. Accordingly log inventories are still climbing in the key growth markets of China and India, with the mature markets of Korea and Japan remaining relatively flat for now.

There is a level of wide spread uncertainty out there when considering international activity over the last month or so, whether it be

  • government heads being ousted
  • share market volatility
  • NZD:USD currency volatility
  • European economic uncertainty and the value of the Euro
  • international residential construction activity
  • freight rates

    As a result there is a general feeling of uncertainty across the board and hopefully the ‘double dipper’ omen of a false economic recovery is not just around the corner. Freight is usually a good lead indicator for commodity activity and worldwide trade and whether it’s good or bad the Baltic dry index has now slid for 26 days straight – so readers can make up their own mind how to gauge the current environment. However, on a positive note our NZ Footballers remained unbeaten in the World cup – the best result in history!!

    The main log markets hold a sentiment that reflects the uncertainty noted above and this combined with remaining high log inventories and supply which is yet to show any signed of real softening, it’s requiring a level of cautiousness once again. Therefore under such an environment, prices are starting to weaken and log customers are watching their sales, inventory and purchases quite closely. Unless there is a sudden correction in consumption (basically a widespread improvement in construction activity) and therefore an improvement in log demand it is expected that demand and pricing will continue to soften for the next few months.

    The severity of any correction will be assisted by forest owners and exporters behavior, and the impact on the bottom line for New Zealanders will be affected by where the FX and freight are going to settle, which both are expected to help in softening the blow in terms of NZD returns and the softening market to an extent.

    The clarity of the crystal ball over the last 12 months or so, has somewhat deteriorated and is now looking a little more murky. Let’s see what the next 4-6 weeks bring as that will set the scene for the balance of the year.

    (Source: TPT Forests)



    Log Exports Justified by MAF Leader

    Chinese log demand has helped create a New Zealand forestry export boom in spite of other key markets’ subdued construction activity. Local forestry exports to China increased 63% in 2009 from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry, as log exports more than doubled and timber shipments rose 70%.

    Forestry exports had their largest ever March quarter at 5.5 million cubic metres, and made a record harvest for the year-to-March at 22.2 million cubic metres. China took almost a quarter of all log exports, up from less than 7% in the year to March 2008. Its increased interest means total forestry-based exports for the year to June 30, 2010 are projected to be 18% higher in volume terms than for the previous year, despite middling demand from Australia and the U.S.

    The timing is perfect for the Kiwi forestry industry that “has come about partly because of Russia’s imposition of an export tax on logs, which has increased Chinese demand for logs from alternative suppliers such as New Zealand,” said MAF director-general Murray Sherwin. “The increased demand at a time when the construction and building industries in developed countries are still coping with the global downturn has been a blessing.”

    Sherwin said criticism of log exports as opposed to value-added products is misplaced in this instance. “Value-added does not automatically equate to profit-added,” he said. “It makes a lot more sense to ship logs at a profit than processed wood products at a loss.” The wood processing industry’s substantial challenge is to develop profitable high productivity processing capacity for world markets while competing effectively with the international log market for raw materials, Sherwin said.

    MAF’s SONZAF forecast shows China’s demand slowing as 2010 progresses, with second and third largest log importers, South Korea and India respectively, having the potential to cushion any downward pressure on prices arising from easing Chinese requirements.



    Unified Voice for Wool Sector

    After years of acrimonious dispute amid plummeting returns, the wool industry has decided to join up to forge a new strategy. Agriculture Minister David Carter hailed the newly formed Wool Group as a "respected voice". The Government would now work with it to find ways to improve the profitability of the industry, he said yesterday.

    The group, which may choose a new name at a later meeting, met for the first time yesterday and decided to look outside the industry for an independent chairman. It has 17 members, representing 17 different organisations involved in wool's transformation from fleece to carpet. Further members may be added, including the sheep industry body Beef + Lamb New Zealand, which till farmers rejected a wool levy, was known as Meat & Wool, and a representative of the marketing-consumer end of the business.

    The wool levy rejection was the catalyst for Mr Carter forming a wool industry taskforce last year. One of the taskforce's recommendations was forming a group to give it a single voice and Mr Carter asked former Treasury secretary and ANZ chief executive Murray Horn to bring this about.

    Dr Horn said yesterday it had been surprisingly easy to do. Although it had been two months since he was appointed he had spent just 10 1/2 days on it.

    (Source: www.stuff.co.nz)



    Environmental Alert - Serious Fuel Spill Incident

    A 5000 l stationary diesel tank was to be shifted to a new site. The new landing was up a steep grade to a swing yarder pad and could not be managed by the available truck. In deciding to shift the stationary tank the crew had overlooked the option of using their small trailer tank to shuttle fuel from the stationary tank to new pad. The crew loader operator undertook to shift the tank under an excavator boom. The tank was full and the carry distance significant (approx 500m) as well as being steep. The tank had properly formed suspension lugs (2) and had a spliced wire rope passed through the lugs to create a lifting loop. The theoretical breaking strain was well in excess of the filled tank weight. The weather was dry.

    During carriage, the wire strop broke dropping the tank to the ground from about 0.5m. The hydraulic shock cause a tank seam to burst at the other end of the tank. The self-bund was insufficient to hold the contents of the near full tank. Between 1000 & 2000 l was lost Surplus diesel overflowed the bund and flowed down the road watertable for about 80m including a small amount exiting through a berm pipe to adjoining land.

    See the attached PDF for full details and to provide preventative information for your crew or for discussion at your next tailgate meeting.



    Wood Export Results to May Outstanding

    Commodity Exports - HS Code 44.0 - Logs, Wood and Wood Articles
    Month ended May3 months ended May12 months ended May
    2009
    $(million)
    2010 P
    $(million)
    2009
    $(million)
    2010 P
    $(million)
    2009
    $(million)
    2010 P
    $(million)
    225 2696308092,3172,571
    UP 19.6%UP 27.5%UP 11.0%
    (Source: Statistics NZ) (P - Provisional)





    FICA Logging Costing Workshop - Whangarei

    Every month these FICA Logging Costing Workshops have been a hit with regional groups of contractors. The content follows a mix of Mark Blackburne's list of 'must'-know' key costing issues for logging contractors - in addition to some excellent references to the newly revised handbook for logging costing knowledge - the Business Management for Logging book.

    The whole handbook was revised recently and includes an excel worksheet to make it easy to do some costing case studies for you own business - once you've been on the course. See the attached PDF for details of the Whangarei workshop. In most instances we have had husband and wife teams attending these workshops so that they are both on the same page when it comes to improving costing skills. Be sure to register fast - just return the completed form by fax to FICA - these workshop fill up quickly!

    Date: Friday, 23rd July
    Location: Kingsgate Hotel, 9 Riverside Drive, Whangarei (Tel 09 438 0284)
    To download the registration PDF - CLICK HERE



    Gunns Welcomes Water Findings

    The George River Water Quality Panel has found there are no water quality issues in the George River. These findings give a clean bill of health for treated drinking water to the local community, ruling out fears of a cancer cluster in the St Helens area, pesticides in the water as well as Eucalyptus nitens toxicant issues for local oyster growers.

    “The bottom line is that there is no indication that the treated water is not safe to drink at St Helens” . In essence the panel found that the river foam samples that were referred to in the Australian Story report broadcast by the ABC in February this year were not representative of the naturally occurring water in the George River”, said Panel Spokesperson and Water Quality Expert, Dr Graeme Batley.



    Carbon dioxide NOT causing a climate crisis, say scientists

    The Climate Scientists’ Register, started one month ago by International Climate ScienceCoalition (ICSC), has just passed its first 100 expert endorsers– see http://tinyurl.com/2es3rqx By allowing their names to be added to the signatory list, these scientists are endorsing the following statement:

    “We, the undersigned, having assessed the relevant scientific evidence, do not find convincing support for the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing, or will in the foreseeable future cause, dangerous global warming."

    “Unlike most other public declarations about climate, The Register only includes the endorsements of individuals who have significant expertise in understanding the causes of climate change”, explains ICSC Executive Director Tom Harris. “By ensuring that the Register statement is apolitical and non-commercial, it is attracting support from scientists across the political spectrum, an important objective if public policy is to be based on the best in non-partisan science.”

    “Contrary to the common assumption that only ‘outliers’ and unqualified researchers disagree with the theory of carbon dioxide-induced climate disaster, The Register demonstrates that many leading experts contest this hypothesis”, said Register endorser Dr. Tim Patterson , ICSC Chair and Professor of Earth Sciences at Carleton University (Ottawa, Canada).

    "Many in the Earth Sciences community in particular have trouble with the concept that today’s climate change is in any way unusual or driven by human activity. Climate has always changed, at times far faster than we are witnessing today, and it will continue to change no matter what we do.”



    Canadian Forestry Deal Needs Indigenous Agreement

    North American logging agreement needs indigenous consent Environmental groups, including the David Suzuki Foundation, surprised many people recently by joining with the logging industry to unveil the largest forest conservation agreement in history.

    The Canadian Boreal Forest Agreement covers more than 72 million hectares of northern wilderness stretching from British Columbia to Newfoundland and Labrador. Under the agreement, members of the Forest Products Association of Canada, will halt logging on 29 million hectares of wildlife habitat while plans for new protected areas and caribou conservation are developed. This habitat is critical to the survival of woodland caribou and other endangered species. The forest companies have also agreed to shift from conventional logging practices to more ecologically sustainable forestry methods, called ecosystem-based management, on the rest of the land base.

    In return, the environmental groups will suspend their "do not buy" campaigns against companies participating in the agreement while it is being implemented.

    For many conservationists, the motivation for entering into negotiations with industry was the urgent need to stop the "bleeding" in boreal woodland caribou habitat. According to a federal government report, many of Canada's caribou herds face extinction if status quo industrial practices aren't stopped.

    (Source: Ottawa Citizen)



    Buy and Sell

    ... and finally ... Time for some SOCCER jokes

    There is no way we could poke fun at the All Whites after their STELLAR performance this year - but the obvious choice this week was - well it had to be England - and SO much material to work with!

    Oxo are introducing a new white Oxo cube with a red cross in support of the England team. It's called the Laughing Stock.

    The England team went to visit an orphanage in South Africa late last week – “It is so good to put a smile on the faces of people with no hope, constant struggling and facing the impossible,” said Sipho Umboto (aged 6).

    WHO SAID FOOTBALLERS AREN'T INTELLIGENT?
    "My parents have always been there for me, ever since I was about 7." David Beckham

    "I would not be bothered if we lost every game as long as we won the league." Mark Viduka

    "If you don't believe you can win, there is no point in getting out of bed at the end of the day." Neville Southall

    "I've had 14 bookings this season - 8 of which were my fault, but 7 of which were disputable." Paul Gascoigne

    "I've never wanted to leave. I'm here for the rest of my life, and hopefully after that as well." Alan Shearer

    "I'd like to play for an Italian club, like Barcelona” (which is Spanish)", Mark Draper

    "You've got to believe that you're going to win, and I believe we'll win the World Cup until the final whistle blows and we're knocked out." Peter Shilton

    "I was watching the Blackburn game on TV on Sunday when it flashed on the screen that George (Ndah) had scored in the first minute at Birmingham .. My first reaction was to ring him up. Then I remembered he was out there playing." Ade Akinbiyi

    "Without being too harsh on David Beckham, he cost us the match." Ian Wright

    "I'm as happy as I can be - but I have been happier." Ugo Ehiogu

    "Leeds is a great club and it's been my home for years, even though I live in Middlesborough." Jonathan Woodgate

    "I can see the carrot at the end of the tunnel." Stuart Pearce

    "I took a whack on my left ankle, but something told me it was my right." Lee Hendrie

    "Germany are a very difficult team to play...they had 11 internationals out there today." Steve Lomas

    "One accusation you can't throw at me is that I've always done my best." Alan Shearer

    "I'd rather play in front of a full house than an empty crowd." Johnny Giles

    "Sometimes in football you have to score goals." Thierry Henry



    That's all for the middle of a mid-winter week - hope it's a good for you and your business! Cheers.

    John Stulen


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