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WoodWeek – 20 January 2010

Greetings from Rotorua for another week in wood.This week we bring you a number of stories on prices. Fuel prices in New Zealand seem strangely volatile given the strong NZ dollar - and we concur with the AA comment.

See more articles on wood market prices which are firm, with volumes exported from NZ slightly lower in November - this is a good trend that the volumes appear to have backed off to match market demand - borne out by the indications that prices are still holding, if not continuing to increase. In the past we have seen volumes continue to skyrocket while prices took a dive, so this is a nice change. Of course China is still the big consumer of both imported logs and lumber and readers will see what the Russians have decided about their export log tariffs - read on and enjoy the good news!

FICA SILVICULTURE MEMBERS - please note you must call the FICA office to register for the 4th February dinner meeting - it's FREE!

Finally, we have been inundated with ACC/FICA competition entries from many of the PF Olsen and Rayonier Safe-Start-Up Breakfast events in early January - watch this space - the winner of the chainsaw and safety accessories will be announced RIGHT HERE next week!

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This week we have for you:

Contractors' Key Indicators

After a four cent per litre jump in the price of diesel at Kiwi pumps last week, Shell yesterday led a price decrease with a three cent drop in diesel prices. The Automobile Association criticised last weeks price rise saying oil companies were unjustified in the hikes due to a strong Kiwi dollar and a drop in international oil prices. The AA stated tha in such conditions the price of petrol and diesel should have corrected itself.

NZ CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
20th January 2010
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
NC90-day bill rate = 2.78%Average (excl GST / all regions) = $1.01
Exchange RatesChange (month) = +4%
NZD/USD = 0.7390Change(quarter) = +9%
NZD/Yen = 67.09Change (year) = +9%
Labour Cost Index - Forestry/LoggingConsumer Price Index
Sep 09 quarter = 1002Sep 09 quarter = 1095
NCChange (quarter) =+0.2%Change (quarter) =+1.3%
N/AChange (year) = N/A*Change (year) = +1.7%

*Note:The LCI has been re-expressed on a June 2009 quarter base (=1000).

AUSTRALIAN CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
20th January 2010
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
90-day bill rate = 4.22%VIC (excl GST) = $1.07
Exchange RatesNSW (excl GST) = $1.07
AUD/USD = 0.9237NCTAS (excl GST) = $1.17
AUD/Yen = 83.49NCSA (excl GST) = $1.10
Wage Price Index - All IndustriesConsumer Price Index
Sep 09 quarter = 102.0Sep 09 quarter = 168.6
Change (quarter) = +0.9%Change (quarter) =+1.0%
Change (year) = +3.4%Change (year) =+1.3%




World Class Plywood Mill Proposed for Myrtleford

Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) Woodproducts Australia has announced a significant plywood mill upgrade at their Myrtleford (VIC) integrated plant, to create a world class plywood mill utilising state of the art manufacturing equipment. This major investment demonstrates Carter Holt Harvey’s commitment to the future of the Australian wood products industry and the employment that it supports in regional Australia. The Myrtleford facility commenced sawmilling and pulping operations in 1975 as Australian Forest Industries. Plywood manufacture began at the site in 1981. CHH purchased the facility in 1995. Under CHH ownership the site has operated as a sawmill, plymill, treatment plant and pulpmill. The pulpmill was decommissioned in 1999.

Construction of the new plymill is scheduled to begin in May 2010 with commissioning in May 2011. CHH has advised that both the existing sawmill and plymill will continue to operate during construction and some of the existing buildings and associated plant will be incorporated into the new plymill facility. CHH has invited feedback from interested parties regarding the proposed upgrade by visiting www.chhwoodproducts.com.au or emailing John Browne (Mill Manager) on john.browne@chhwoodproducts.com.au.



Industry Experts Add Impact to Industry Finance Conference

 
Finance for forestry will be THE hot topic in March when the Forest Industry Engineering Association brings together local and overseas experts for the inaugural Future Forestry Finance Conference at the Rendezvous Hotel in Auckland and at the Novotel Brighton Beach in Sydney.

Recent speaker confirmations for the New Zealand event will boost interest the conference programme. Jacob Kajavala, director of Kajavala Forestry, and Pat Coley, Financial Services Manager for Cable Price, have been jointly confirmed to speak on the issues of the bankability of contracts for forest contractors. Forest contractors regularly invest millions of dollars in major and specialised capital plant for logging and transport and there is a growing need for better and longer-term contracts to ensure stability in investments in this part of the forestry sector.

George Asher of Lake Taupo Forest Trust and Bill Liley of Poyry have also been confirmed to speak on Maori aspects going into the future for the forestry sector. Both speakers have considerable experience with Maori stakeholders in the forest industry.

The conference in Auckland will held on 4-5th March 2010 will focus on strengthening ties between the finance and forest products industries in New Zealand. Many of the countries that are key wood export markets are now rebounding from recession. Forestry is now poised to capitalise on potential new rules for the next Kyoto Protocol commitment period which could make for huge change and growth.

“Forest products opportunities are set to grow massively in bio-energy and carbon credit markets– and finance company risk managers would benefit from a local and international market update.” says conference organiser John Stulen of the Forest Industry Engineering Association (FIEA).

Key note speakers include:
Eva Greger of GMO Renewable Resources, Boston, USA – speaking on international forestry investment comparisons to Australia.

Russell Taylor of International Wood Markets Group, Vancouver, Canada – speaking on international wood markets and future competition from Russia and China.

Bob Flynn, RISI – speaking on international biomass and woodchip markets and future competition from South American forest industries. RISI is the leading information provider for the global forest products industry.

Registration details and further information on the Auckland or Sydney programme is available from the event website www.forestryfinanceevents.com

EARLY BIRD DEADLINE HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THIS FRIDAY, 22nd JANUARY.



FICA Members Meetings and Workshops in February/March

BUSH-BASED WORKSHOP “Practical Cable Logging – ‘Tricks of the Trade’ ” – We plan to run our first bush-based regional one-day workshop in mid-February or mid-March (depending on registration numbers) in Whangamata.

The workshop will include the following sessions:
SMALL CONTRACTOR COSTING AND LOGISTICS
PRACTICAL PROBLEM-SOLVING METHODS
CABLE LOGGING OPERATIONS LAYOUT AND PLANNING
CABLE LOGGING – FITTING YOUR TEAM/SYSTEMS TO CLIENT NEEDS AND COMMUNICATION


The bush business backup will be led by experienced FICA members. As it will be a practical workshop it will appeal to younger, single-crew contractors wanting to learn fast how to avoid expensive mistakes. Registration for this workshop is exclusive to FICA members. Registration costs $440 + gst per person or $320+gst per person for 2 people from the same company. To register call Susan on 07 921 1382. Numbers will be strictly limited to 12 contractors/delegates. Don’t hesitate – this is a unique opportunity to learn from the masters!


Networking Meeting for Silviculture Contractors – Help FICA to Meet YOUR Business Improvement Needs – the first FICA meeting for 2010 – Thursday 4th February at Taupo Cosmopolitan Club (5-7 Taniwha Street). It's FREE for all SILVICULTURE contractors to discuss new membership services for contractors. It starts at 3pm and concludes with dinner - please call Susan on 07 921 1382 to confirm your attendance. See you there!
(NOTE – you must reply prior to the meeting so we can get numbers for catering.)



Ocean Freight Index

 
The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) closed yesterday at 2527 points, an increase of 4% or 107 points since last months report.

The BSI (Baltic Supramax Index), published by the Baltic Exchange, is the weighted average on 5 major time-charter routes. It is based on a 52,454 mt bulk carrier carrying commodities such as timber.

(Source: Cotzias Shipping)






Forestry Product Prices Rise Alongside Aluminium and Dairy

An upbeat tone to start 2010 for commodity producers from the end of last year. The ANZ Commodity Price Index ended last year with a 2.6 percent increase in December. The cumulative rise over the calendar year was 30 percent, with the largest annual increases in commodity prices recorded in dairy, aluminium and sawn timber (up 50, 47 and 40 percent, respectively). The overall index remains at lofty levels, and is only 6 percent away from its record high, recorded in July 2008.

Aluminium, forestry and dairy the largest rises. Six of the commodities recorded a price rise in December, five recorded reduced prices and two were unchanged. The largest individual rise in the month was a 12 percent lift in aluminium prices. Forestry prices also rose, with increased prices for wood pulp (4.1 percent), sawn timber and logs (both lifting 2.0 percent), Dairy prices moved up 3.0 percent in December and lamb was the last commodity to register a rise in price in the month, lifting 1.4 percent.


(Source: ANZ Commodity Index)


Commodity Exports - HS Code 44.0 - Logs, Wood and Wood Articles
Month ended November3 months ended November12 months ended November
2008
$(million)
2009 P
$(million)
2008
$(million)
2009 P
$(million)
2008
$(million)
2009 P
$(million)
230 1956646202,1772,298
DOWN 15.2%DOWN 6.6%UP 5.6%
(Source: Statistics NZ) (P - Provisional)




Global Softwood Lumber Markets Mixed in 3Q/09

Softwood lumber imports to China have increased by 81% in 2009. It is not inconceivable that China will import more lumber than Japan in 2009, a historical first. Canadian sawmills have been the major beneficiaries of this new fast-growing market, reports the Wood Resource Quarterly.

Softwood lumber markets continued to be weak in Japan and the US during the 3Q/09, but have improved in Europe and, surprisingly, northern Africa, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly. Swedish sawmills have shipped 45% more lumber to Egypt, Morocco and Algeria this year compared to last year, and this market has a current market share of 23% of all lumber exported from Sweden. Egypt is the third largest market for both the Swedish and Finnish lumber industries. With the increase in demand from the export market, lumber prices in the Nordic countries have gone up by over 20% in four months.

The lumber market in Japan did not change much during the 3Q, with domestic sawmills running at much lower rates than in 2008. During the first eight months, production was 15% lower than last year, and it is not expected that there will be much improvement in the 4Q. So far this year, lumber imports are about 77% of last years’ level. Prices for both domestic and imported lumber have been fairly stable in Yen terms but have increased slightly in US dollars because of exchange rate adjustments.

China is consuming record-volumes of lumber this year and the country’s thirst for lumber has not only been met by higher production at the country’s sawmills, but also from an increase in the importation of lumber. During the first nine months this year, China imported 81% more lumber than during the same period last year. It is not inconceivable that in 2009, China will import more lumber than Japan, a historical first. Canadian sawmills have been the major beneficiaries of this new fast-growing market, with exports up 135% so far this year.

The US lumber market improved for a short period in June and July when sawmill curtailments created reduced lumber inventories, but the rally was short-lived and both production and prices fell back slightly towards the end of the 3Q in both Canada and the US. Softwood lumber prices were higher this fall than in the spring when prices reached record lows. Expectations are that the US lumber market will continue to be slow during much of 2010.

(Source:Wood Resources International LLC)



Te Hiku Forum Iwi Sign Agreement in Principle

The Crown and Te Hiku Forum, a group of five Far North iwi, signed an Agreement in Principle last week towards settling historical Treaty of Waitangi claims in the area. The Agreement provides for commercial redress of $120 million between the five iwi. It includes the transfer of Aupouri Crown forest along with accumulated rentals, and the transfer of seven farms in the region from Landcorp and Crown agencies. Te Hiku Forum chairman Haami Piripi said iwi were looking forward to managing iwi-owned forestry and farming, as well as investing in fishing, tourism, education and training.



Russian Government Postpones Log Export Duties Again

Decree number 1071 of the Russian government was signed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 23 December, postpones the increase of round wood export duties once again by one year until 2011. The Decree is valid from the January 1, 2010, as reported by the Nordic Paper Journal. The export duty for wood will remain at the previous level, which means an export duty for softwood in 2010 of 25%, but not less than Euro 15 per cubic metre. From the beginning of 2011 the duty for softwood will be 80%, but not less than Euro 50 per cubic metre.



USA Papermakers like the Taste of Government Subsidies

 
The huge black-liquor subsidy of pulp mills expired last week, but that isn't stopping the US forest-products industry from tapping US taxpayers' money in other ways. Three quarters of the pulp and paper companies that received US black-liquor tax credits are signed up to benefit from another biofuel subsidy, the new Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP). But also among the more than 100 mills that have been approved as BCAP "biomass conversion facilities" are at least several that were put at a competitive disadvantage by the black-liquor program, which expired in Dec 2009.

Various paper companies are also getting government help to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, using state grants funded by federal economic-stimulus programs. Just this week, Maine awarded $2 million to Verso Paper's Bucksport mill and smaller amounts to five other paper companies for investments in such projects as heat recovery and biomass boilers. Last month, Wisconsin made similar energy-efficiency grants totalling about $5 million to four paper companies.

Say hello to Uncle Same – US paper companies have historically avoided government entanglement. But after some left millions of dollars on the table last year by being late to the black-liquor party, they are definitely keeping an eye on Uncle Sam's wallet now. BCAP is nowhere near as generous as the black-liquor credits, and the benefits to paper mills and other buyers of biomass will be indirect and uncertain. Boosted by a $517 million appropriation for the first quarter of 2010, the program provides subsidies to suppliers rather than users of biomass.

By being BCAP-approved sites, biomass users - such as paper mills that burn bark, limbs and sawdust to fire their boilers - will presumably be able to buy at less-than-market prices. As with the black-liquor credits, critics are already complaining that BCAP will distort markets in a way that unfairly hurts some businesses without doing much for the environment.

(This article originally appeared at Dead Tree Edition (http://deadtreeedition.blogspot.com), written by a someone with the pseudonym D. Eadward Tree. The above comments are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect that of the WoodWeek Editor or Innovatek Ltd.)



Border Taxes: Should New Zealand be Worried?

This Insight looks at whether New Zealand is in danger of having border taxes imposed on its exports if it is perceived as having a weak stance on climate change. It concludes that although New Zealand may not be explicitly targeted by border taxes in the short term, there remain some longer term risks to our exporters from the increased global focus on the environmental impacts of trade.

A number of countries are talking about introducing border taxes to protect their local industry from imports from countries that have no or soft policies to tackle climate change. This is a risk to New Zealand’s exports, but overseas consumer perceptions of the sustainability of goods produced in New Zealand are a greater threat.

Recent policy decisions about New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) and 2020 emissions target have sparked concern from those who believe New Zealand should be doing more to tackle climate change. One oft-mentioned (but little-analysed) possible consequence of New Zealand’s allegedly ‘soft’ climate change stance is the risk that New Zealand’s exports could face environmental trade barriers such as border taxes in the future. …more

(Source: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)



...and finally...the new recruit...

The Marine Drill Sergeant noticed a new recruit and barked at him, 'Get yourself over here ! What's your name?"

"Paul," the new recruit replied.

"Look, I don't know what kind of bleeding-heart pansy rubbish they're teaching in boot camp today, but I don't call anyone by his first name," the sergeant scowled. "It breeds familiarity, and that leads to a breakdown in authority. I refer to my recruits by their last names only. Smith, Jones, Baker. I am to be referred to only as 'Sergeant.' Do I make myself clear?"

"Yes, sir, Sergeant!"

"Now that we've got that straight, what's your last name?"

The recruit sighed "Darling, My name is Paul Darling."

"Okay, Paul, here's what I want you to do ....."




Buy and Sell

...and finally, finally..the out of office auto-reply...

"I am currently out of the office at a job interview and will reply to you if I fail to get the position. Please be prepared for my mood."

"You are receiving this automatic notification, because I am out of the office. If I was in, chances are you wouldn't have received anything at all."

"I will be unable to delete all the emails you send me until I return from vacation. Please be patient, and your mail will be deleted in the order it was received."

"Hi, I'm thinking about what you've just sent me. Please wait by your PC for my response."

"I've run away to join a different circus."



And on that note, enjoy the rest of your week. Cheers.

John Stulen
Innovatek Ltd Rotorua Office
PO Box 6160
Rotorua 3043
New Zealand

Ph:+64 7 921 1382
Fax:+64 7 348 1420
Web page: www.innovatek.co.nz

This week's extended issue can be viewed at www.woodweek.com


We welcome comments and contributions on WoodWeek. For details on advertising for positions within the forest products industry or for products and services, either within the weekly newsletter or on this web page, please contact us.

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