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WoodWeek – 2 December 2009

Greetings from Rotorua. This week it's nice to have emissions trading almost fading out of the main media, leaving room for far more interesting stuff like Tiger Woods' personal life. Will we ever know what he was up to when he was 'playing-a-round' in Melbourne? And his wife didn't get a 'hole-in-one' with her first hit with the club - she broke both windows in the Cadillac. Oops that's not really a 'wood' story is it- got off topic there for a second.

Meanwhile export log markets remain firm, with demand continuing to be strong in not just China, but Korea and Japan lifting as well. At the same time domestic wood processors demand for logs is lifting as housing starts have seen over 11% growth in the past year. The housing starts are coming off quite a low base though.

What's really neat this week is the young engineer award for work which we've been aware of for sometime which could well see wood playing a far bigger role in commercial buildings. That kind of market development would be very welcome - especially in the domestic market to begin with.

Finally this week, good news on the planting front with MAF granting considerable funds for forest establishment on the East Coast.
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This week we have for you:

Contractors' Key Indicators

Interest rates are up in Australia this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% yesterday, with the aim to keep inflation under control and to ensure a continued economic recovery. This is the first time the bank has raised interest rates for three consecutive months since it began announcing these moves in January 1990.

NZ CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
2nd December 2009
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
90-day bill rate = 2.77%NCAverage (excl GST / all regions) = $0.96
Exchange RatesChange (month) = 0%
NZD/USD = 0.7161NCChange(quarter) = +1%
NZD/Yen = 61.77Change (year) = -11%
Labour Cost Index - Forestry/LoggingConsumer Price Index
Sep 09 quarter = 1002Sep 09 quarter = 1095
NCChange (quarter) =+0.2%Change (quarter) =+1.3%
N/AChange (year) = N/A*Change (year) = +1.7%

*Note:The LCI has been re-expressed on a June 2009 quarter base (=1000).

AUSTRALIAN CONTRACTORS' KEY INDICATORS
2nd December 2009
Interest RatesDiesel Price Watch
90-day bill rate = 4.00%NCVIC (excl GST) = $1.06
Exchange RatesNCNSW (excl GST) = $1.04
AUD/USD = 0.9136NCTAS (excl GST) = $1.12
AUD/Yen = 79.84NCSA (excl GST) = $1.07
Wage Price Index - All IndustriesConsumer Price Index
Sep 09 quarter = 102.0Sep 09 quarter = 168.6
Change (quarter) = +0.9%Change (quarter) =+1.0%
Change (year) = +3.4%Change (year) =+1.3%




New Zealand Log Prices - November 2009

Earlier rumours of an inventory build in China contributing to price falls have proved fruitless and demand from this region remains strong for soft wood. This has contributed to a rise in prices in this market. A KS log has lifted US$4/JASm3 to US$113/JASm3 while a KI log has jumped US$5/JASm3 to US$108/JASm3.

Strong demand is also being experienced in Korea while demand from Japan is improving as industrial output gradually returns to normal levels. In India, a small increase in demand for pulp logs, as a low grade saw log, has helped this flat market, which was suffering from a recent increase in stock levels. At this stage, demand and supply appear to be in balance with future demand slightly ahead helped also by increases in domestic requirements.

Some overdue relief in both sea freight rates and foreign exchange volatility was experienced in the past month. Sea freight rates have remained stable at US$39/JASm3, meanwhile foreign exchange also stabilised, though a small lift in the past week has seen an average rise of 0.8% across the currencies of New Zealand's major forestry trading partners.

The Baltic Dry Index has continued its climb with a jump in the past month to 4111, which is 34% ahead of this time last month and a climb of almost 500% since the low of 841 in November 2008. However, this is somewhat behind the highs of over 12,000 experienced in mid 2008.

The NZX Agrifax Combined Log Price Index, which measures returns from the whole forest, has lifted almost two points to NZ$76/T. Increases, particularly in export prices fuelled by strong demand out of Asia, have mostly contributed to this rise while domestic prices have remained firm for the month.

Log price changes:
North Island:

  • Domestic: Pruned prices are stable to up $3/T. Unpruned prices are mostly stable, though A grade has lifted in the North.
  • Export: Grades are up $2-$5/T. Pulp log prices are mostly stable.

    South Island:
  • Domestic: Pruned prices are steady to up $2/T. Unpruned prices are stable to up $5/T.
  • Export: Prices are steady to up $4/T. Pulp log prices are stable.

    For more detailed reports contact Agri-Fax at: www.agri-fax.co.nz/enquiries.cfm



    Coming Up in NZ Logger This Month

     
    The Caterpillar 320 has long been the workhorse for forestry contractors and the introduction of the D-series earlier in the year has made this loader even better. The December-January issue of NZ Logger magazine puts the new 320DFM through the Iron Test to see how much it has improved.

    And in the quarterly NZ Timber section there’s a profile on the 60-year-old Mamaku sawmill and how it has managed to resist the recession.

    To find out more head to the NZ Logger Website.




    Australian ETS Stalemate Threatens NZ Harmony

    Difficulties the Australian Government faces in passing its Emissions Trading Scheme underline the folly of New Zealand forcing through its own legislation under urgency, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson Charles Chauvel. The Rudd Government’s ETS may not pass because deep divisions in the Liberal Party Opposition mean the Bill is now struggling to find the numbers it needs. “We still hope that the Australian ETS passes, but if it doesn’t it will certainly underline National’s folly here in ramming through its legislation to harmonise with an Australian scheme that may well not come into being --- at least not immediately, and certainly not in the form planned when Nick Smith committed to harmonisation,” Mr Chauvel said.

    The ACT party are echoing these sentiments. "ACT has said all along that it was foolish to ram through the ETS without waiting to see what Australia would do. The change in Liberal Party leadership today has spelt the end of the Rudd Government’s ETS and puts our exporters at risk," said ACT New Zealand ETS Spokesman John Boscawen yesterday. "Our exporters now face much higher costs than those of their Australian counterparts. We will no longer be competing on a level playing field, and this will have dire consequences on our economy.”



    Young Engineer Adding Value to Forestry Industry

     
    The New Zealand Young Engineer of the Year title was awarded to Michael Newcombe at a Gala dinner in Wellington last week. After completing his first degree at the University of Canterbury, Michael undertook masterate studies in earthquake engineering at the University of Pavia in Italy. He has continued to build his research and is now working towards completing his PhD on the design of reinforced wood structures using laminated veneer lumber held together by high-strength steel.

    The goal of the work is to establish how to build safe multi-storey buildings using this new building material which has the advantage of contributing to sustainability, as well as having potential to establish a new New Zealand industry and adding value to the forestry industry by utilising New Zealand made wood products.

    Michael has demonstrated strong practical skills as well as succeeding in his research. He has demonstrated the ability to work at the interface between research and business. He is an excellent communicator, both to his peers through published work and conference presentations, and as a teacher.

    The New Zealand Engineering Excellence Awards are the premier awards for the engineering professionals of New Zealand and the Young Engineer award recognises a young engineer who has made an excellent contribution as an engineer and leader through their professional role and community involvement.



    Machinery Giant Expects Recovery

    Komatsu Forest had expected to supply $32m worth of harvest machinery to Timbercorp over the coming four years for the looming bluegum harvest in its biggest Australian deal. Those plans, which would have seen the global equipment manufacturer expand its South East workshop, collapsed with the downfall of the managed investment scheme company. But an international leader of Komatsu has visited the South East this week to continue the company’s dominance in the region and retain its 50% share of the Australian forest harvest machinery market.

    Executive Vice-president Toshiya Yasukawa hopes to position the company to be a major player in harvest of the region’s hardwood plantations after 120 Komatsu machines have long been active in pine plantations surrounding Mount Gambier. Prototype harvesters have already been tested in the district for thousands of hours in preparation to introduce new equipment to the market.

    “Since the global financial crisis last year, the market has been very slow — it has been a very weak year so far,” Mr Yusukawa said. “Worldwide demand for wheel-type forestry equipment has been down more than 50% compared to 2008 — it is a huge drop.” However, he said a strong turn-around was expected in the next six to nine months. “Then the bluegum harvesting will have to start and we see it probably improving about 30-35% next year,” he added.

    Valmet Komatsu Forest Australian Sales Manager, Brenton Yon said although markets had dropped, the economy and industry were expected to swing back quickly. But he does not expect the new owners of Timbercorp’s forestry estate — Global Forest Partners — to honour the previous supply agreement. “I think they will do it differently — Timbercorp did their own harvesting, but the new owners will probably employ contractors rather than harvest themselves,” he said.

    Meanwhile, he said Great Southern had always used contractors for its plantations, which appear set to be taken over by Gunns — a company that may need the hardwood estate to help sustain its Tasmanian pulp mill in a move away from old growth forests.

    “We are just getting ready with bluegums and don’t have a lot of machinery in that field, but that is where the growth is,” Mr Yon said. He said pine activity would remain stable and it was previously hoped the bluegum boom would come over the next two years, but that had blown out to three to four years due to the managed investment scheme collapses and economic slowdown.

    (Source: The Border Watch)



    Bonus Safety Corner - My Seatbelt Saved My Life

    Background - A tractor operator was blading off slash to get better access to a lone tree on the edge of a bank on the edge of a skid. As the operator lifted the blade, he felt the tractor start to tip forwards. The bank underneath the tractor then collapsed and the machine fell 25m down a vertical bank into a gully landing nose first on its blade. The machine's fall was broken by slash and fill in the bottom of the gully. The operator was seat belted in, and was able to crawl out of the cab unaided. The operator sustained sprained wrists, minor whip lash and bruising to abdomen where the seat belt dug in. Structurally the machine was undamaged.

    Cause - The operator did not realise the full extent of the hazard - thought that he had another 10m of ground in front of him before the drop off.

    Opportunities

  • Review your hazard controls for operating machinery on steep slopes.
  • Don’t push the limits on unstable ground.
  • Ensure machine operators are competent with the machine and ground conditions.
  • Check that operators are wearing lap belts.
  • Check that the seat belt catch and release mechanism is working.



    People on the Move

    On the 23rd of November, Romon Spiers was appointed general manager of Flight Timbers Ltd. Mr Spiers has a good background in the industry and will lead the company and its operations forward into the next dimension.

    Departing GM Lochy Beckham has been with Flight Timbers for 21 years and prior to that spent 25 years at Pine Milling Co Ltd in Rotorua. He will continue with his directorship role in the company as well as becoming more involved in special projects and specific engineering aspects of Flight Timbers Ltd. Mr Beckham is not putting a definitive time on how long this will continue however he is expecting to be around for “a few years at least”.



    ITC Timber Transaction to Proceed

    On 31 August 2009 Gunns Ltd and Elders Ltd announced agreement on terms for the sale of the ITC Timber business by Elders to Gunns. The sale was conditional on Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) approval of the transaction. The transaction was referred by Gunns to the ACCC for review.

    The ACCC announced last week its intention to oppose the transaction, highlighting in particular its concerns about the impact of the acquisition by Gunns of ITC Timber's 50 per cent stake in the SmartFibre wood chip joint venture. The SmartFibre business is a woodchip export joint venture between Elders and Forest Enterprises Australia, operating out of Bell Bay in Tasmania. It has an attributed acquisition value in the proposed transaction of approximately $9.3 million (representing approximately 10% of the total transaction enterprise value).

    In light of this decision, Gunns and Elders excluded the 50% stake in SmartFibre from the proposed transaction and the ACC announced this week that it will not oppose the revised proposed acquisition.

    It is Gunns’ and Elders’ intention to complete documentation of a final transaction with completion targeted for the coming week.



    NZ Home Building Approvals Climb in October

    New Zealand home-building approvals jumped last month, extending their gains for a fourth month, ensuring a key element to the nation’s economic recovery remains in place as interest rates remain low. The number of consents issued surged 11.7% to 1,397 in October, seasonally adjusted, from the previous month, according to Statistics New Zealand. Excluding apartments, permits climbed 11.2% to 1,295, the highest since June 2008. The value of home-building approvals rose 9.5% last month from a year earlier to $481 million, while non-residential building approvals fell 5.6% to $329 million.

    The consents data adds to signs of a revival in the housing sector, with home sales surging 36% last month from October 2008, according to Real Estate Institute figures this month. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard has vowed to keep the official cash rate near its current record low 2.5% until the second half of 2010 and even though traders expect him to move sooner, he lags behind his Australian counterpart in raising borrowing costs.

    “We continue to see residential construction as an important prop for growth over 2010,” said Bernard Doyle, New Zealand strategist at Goldman Sachs JBWere. “Low interest rates, house sales activity, positive net migration and construction sector business sentiment all point to further upside from here.”

    Inbound migrants exceeded departures by 18,560 in the 12 months through October, a five-year high, according to government figures. Demand from migrants was a key factor fuelling New Zealand’s housing boom before the financial crisis brought it crashing down.



    Commerce Commission Get All Clear to Chase CHH

    A Supreme Court ruling has given the go-ahead for the Commerce Commission to proceed with a claim against Carter Holt Harvey Ltd. that could force the timber company owned by Graeme Hart’s Rank Group to refund as many as 60,000 households. The regulator claims CHH is liable for consumers and competitors who suffered a loss due to the forest products company selling timber below the grade claimed on the packaging.

    The country’s highest court overturned a previous Court of Appeal ruling that the Commission failed to file proceedings against CHH within the limitation period allowed by the Fair Trading Act. “The Commission is pleased with the outcome of the Supreme Court hearing and will now focus upon progressing its proceedings on behalf of those who suffered loss arising from Carter Holt Harvey’s contraventions,” the regulator said in a statement.

    In October 2006, CHH pleaded guilty to 20 charges of breaching the Fair Trading Act for selling timber that didn’t meet the grade advertised. The company was fined $900,000 and an executive was also fined in connection with the case.

    The Commerce Commission is calling for homeowners and buildings that may have bought or used the mis-graded timber to contact them and is claiming CHH pay refunds to end-users the difference between what they paid and the fair market value of the lesser grade timber. It’s also pushing for CHH to compensate competitors that may have lost profit as a result of the sale. The timber in question was sold between May 1998 and October 2003.



    $3.4 Million Approved for Erosion Control

    The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has approved in principle 19 new applications, worth over $3.4 million, under the East Coast Forestry Project’s (ECFP) 2009 funding round. The projects cover erosion treatments starting in 2010, 2011 and 2012. This funding will provide for a further 2,147 hectares of new erosion control projects in the Gisborne District.

    Randolph Hambling, MAF’S Gisborne based regional manager for North Island Sustainable Programmes, believes this is a great achievement for sustainable land management and erosion control in Gisborne where erosion is a severe problem. “Together with the Gisborne District Council, we are committed to continue working with landowners through funding and advising on control measures that can effectively manage erosion and other issues that result from it such as sedimentation and an increased risk of flooding,” he said.

    Forestry treatments which include Radiata pine, Douglas fir and Eucalyptus species, account for 69% of the 2,147 hectare area approved. Indigenous reversion treatments account for 11% and poplar and willow pole planting treatments account for 22% of the area approved. “Maori land, which has around 28% of the district’s severe erosion, accounts for 52% of the total area approved,” Mr Hambling said.

    The Government established the East Coast Forestry Project in 1992 as a response to erosion damage to the district following Cyclone Bola. The scheme provides grants for various soil conservation treatments.




    Buy and Sell

    …and finally… the police officer and the granny…

    Sitting on the side of the highway waiting to catch speeding drivers, a police officer sees a car puttering along at 22 Km/h. He says to himself, "This driver is just as dangerous as a speedster!"

    So he turns on his lights and pulls the driver over. Approaching the car, he notices that there are five old ladies - two in the front seats and three in the back - wide eyed and white as ghosts.

    The driver, obviously confused, says to him "Officer, I don't understand, I was doing exactly the speed limit! What seems to be the problem?"

    "Ma'am," the officer replies, "you weren't speeding, but you should know that driving slower than the speed limit can also be a danger to other drivers."

    "Slower than the speed limit? No sir, I was doing the speed limit exactly. Twenty-two kilometres an hour!" the old woman says a bit proudly.

    The Police officer, trying to contain a chuckle explains to her that 22 was the highway number, not the speed limit. A bit embarrassed, the woman grinned and thanked the officer for pointing out her error.

    "But before I let you go, Ma'am, I have to ask.. Is everyone in this car OK? These women seem awfully shaken and they haven't made a peep this whole time," the officer asks.

    "Oh, they'll be all right in a minute officer. We just got off Highway 162."



    And on that note, enjoy the rest of your week. Cheers.

    John Stulen
    Innovatek Ltd Rotorua Office
    PO Box 6160
    Rotorua 3043
    New Zealand

    Ph:+64 7 921 1382
    Fax:+64 7 348 1420
    Web page: www.innovatek.co.nz

    This week's extended issue can be viewed at www.woodweek.com


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